Wednesday, November 04, 2009

Interesting to Look at the Nuts & Bolts of voting

Unofficial Results by Precinct. With the reconfigured precincts this year's election was a bit of a guess as to how everything would fall.

Once again the Dems have this City figured out and now the Mayor has all of his people in place to govern. So lets see what happens.

01 NICKIE J. ANTONIO 5,616 20.30 05 DANIEL E. SHIELDS 3,789 13.70
02 RYAN PATRICK DEMRO 5,229 18.90 06 = MONIQUE SMITH 5,451 19.71
03 BRIAN POWERS 5,591 20.21 07 = OVER VOTES 24
04 JARED K. SHAPIRO 1,984 7.17 08 = UNDER VOTES 12,306

----------------------- 01 02 03 04 05 06
LAKEWOOD -01-A 159 137 178 43 81 175
LAKEWOOD -01-B 159 171 181 50 109 182
LAKEWOOD -01-C 112 95 109 26 76 104
LAKEWOOD -01-D 117 130 136 42 89 130
LAKEWOOD -01-E 160 150 143 44 94 167
LAKEWOOD -01-F 65 78 64 31 76 83
LAKEWOOD -01-G 77 114 78 43 63 101
LAKEWOOD -01-H 189 176 252 54 82 179
LAKEWOOD -01-I 161 137 151 42 98 155
LAKEWOOD -01-J 203 203 226 65 109 234
LAKEWOOD -02-A 196 173 218 49 139 188
LAKEWOOD -02-B 133 118 125 37 111 132
LAKEWOOD -02-C 154 176 146 55 145 180
LAKEWOOD -02-D 119 82 106 41 98 122
LAKEWOOD -02-E 157 163 168 51 145 168
LAKEWOOD -02-F 123 151 162 44 115 118
LAKEWOOD -02-G 136 145 103 55 102 117
LAKEWOOD -02-H 118 136 103 56 130 136
LAKEWOOD -02-I 137 151 123 43 106 146
LAKEWOOD -02-J 147 157 132 44 150 171
LAKEWOOD -03-A 239 208 342 51 106 191
LAKEWOOD -03-B 203 174 175 81 119 168
LAKEWOOD -03-C 120 129 116 94 78 107
LAKEWOOD -03-D 144 171 145 56 96 141
LAKEWOOD -03-E 128 121 131 75 88 140
LAKEWOOD -03-F 204 170 193 64 114 178
LAKEWOOD -03-G 122 122 120 52 84 87
LAKEWOOD -03-H 147 121 125 45 84 122
LAKEWOOD -03-I 102 134 113 62 78 96
LAKEWOOD -03-J 102 82 94 44 67 89
LAKEWOOD -04-A 182 165 176 60 91 153
LAKEWOOD -04-B 119 82 106 47 64 111
LAKEWOOD -04-C 85 45 78 18 53 76
LAKEWOOD -04-D 133 99 137 45 80 115
LAKEWOOD -04-E 49 43 47 26 38 54
LAKEWOOD -04-F 116 114 101 54 98 119
LAKEWOOD -04-G 83 63 68 26 48 83
LAKEWOOD -04-H 142 94 111 44 74 108
LAKEWOOD -04-I 138 117 123 44 70 130
LAKEWOOD -04-J 155 83 119 50 88 117
LAKEWOOD -04-K 81 49 67 31 53 78

Monday, November 02, 2009

Council at Large Race General Elections 2009

Tomorrow is the General Election in Lakewood for the 3 At-Large Council seats.

This has been pretty much a ho-hum type of race, no real drama from the Candidates themselves. The only one creating drama is Mayor FitzGerald and based on the comments I got while knocking on doors yesterday, Mayor FitzGerald should have left things alone and not injected himself into the mix. I think a few people who have liked what he has done since he has been Mayor felt he overstepped himself with the last minute hit piece.

I have a feeling there are a few Democrats who probably didn't distribute his piece because of the ineffectiveness of it. (I will post the piece in question later on today)

Now on to the race it self.

Generally speaking there are three seats up for Election.

Nickie Antonio is seeking re-election to a second term

Brian Powers is looking to retain the seat he was appointed to last year when FitzGerald became Mayor and had to vacate his seat.

Mike Dever decided to not run for re-election this year so this seat is open.

So here are the Candidates:
Nickie Antonio
Brian Powers
Ryan Demro
Jared Shapiro
Dan Shields
Monique Smith

Now this is where the intrigue begins:

The Lakewood Democratic Club endorsed Antonio, Shields and Smith;
Mayor FitzGerald is pushing for Antonio, Powers and Smith

The Republicans are working for Demro and Shapiro

So it looks like the Democrats are going to be split as to who to choose.

The question really becomes who gets the other two seats.

The way I see it,

Antonio will win the top spot pretty handily, she has waged pretty much a similar campaign that worked for her 4 years ago. Although, I don't think she knocked on as many doors this time around. Name recognition will get her in.

To me the next two seats are essentially up for grabs.

Brian Powers had a rocky start to his tenure when he pulled up the Pit Bull ban and then came across a little heavy handed. Will he retain his seat -- maybe.

Ryan Demro is the former Ward 2 Councilman, who gave up his seat last year to run an unsuccessful attempt for Mayor. Besides Antonio, he is the most experienced candidate on the slate.

He has run a campaign this time around with a little less bombastic stuff then he did for the Mayor's race. Maybe a little Army training and maturation will help him slide into one of the spots.

Jared Shapiro is a newcomer to Lakewood politics and unfortunately will suffer the same fate that I did, and finish out of the hunt.

Now to Monqiue Smith and Dan Shields, here is where the Democrats will create a problem.

Smith is a rookie to running for office, but she is not a rookie to Democratic politics. Shields has made several attempts for elective office. But is considered to be an outsider from the Democratic clique.

I believe the split in the Democratic party endorsements will cause a split in these two and cancel each other out and put someone else in that third slot.

Here is how I think it will go:

Antonio - Gets re-elected
Demro - Comes in second, the split votes among Powers, Smith and Shield jumps him into here
Powers - Gets Retained, LCA parents and FitzGerald Fans will bring him in to the final slot
Smith - She needs more polish on her presentation at candidate forums and Q & A sessions.
Shields - Just can't get by the machine
Shapiro - Like Shields can't get by the machines