Monday, November 02, 2009

Council at Large Race General Elections 2009

Tomorrow is the General Election in Lakewood for the 3 At-Large Council seats.

This has been pretty much a ho-hum type of race, no real drama from the Candidates themselves. The only one creating drama is Mayor FitzGerald and based on the comments I got while knocking on doors yesterday, Mayor FitzGerald should have left things alone and not injected himself into the mix. I think a few people who have liked what he has done since he has been Mayor felt he overstepped himself with the last minute hit piece.

I have a feeling there are a few Democrats who probably didn't distribute his piece because of the ineffectiveness of it. (I will post the piece in question later on today)

Now on to the race it self.

Generally speaking there are three seats up for Election.

Nickie Antonio is seeking re-election to a second term

Brian Powers is looking to retain the seat he was appointed to last year when FitzGerald became Mayor and had to vacate his seat.

Mike Dever decided to not run for re-election this year so this seat is open.

So here are the Candidates:
Nickie Antonio
Brian Powers
Ryan Demro
Jared Shapiro
Dan Shields
Monique Smith

Now this is where the intrigue begins:

The Lakewood Democratic Club endorsed Antonio, Shields and Smith;
Mayor FitzGerald is pushing for Antonio, Powers and Smith

The Republicans are working for Demro and Shapiro

So it looks like the Democrats are going to be split as to who to choose.

The question really becomes who gets the other two seats.

The way I see it,

Antonio will win the top spot pretty handily, she has waged pretty much a similar campaign that worked for her 4 years ago. Although, I don't think she knocked on as many doors this time around. Name recognition will get her in.

To me the next two seats are essentially up for grabs.

Brian Powers had a rocky start to his tenure when he pulled up the Pit Bull ban and then came across a little heavy handed. Will he retain his seat -- maybe.

Ryan Demro is the former Ward 2 Councilman, who gave up his seat last year to run an unsuccessful attempt for Mayor. Besides Antonio, he is the most experienced candidate on the slate.

He has run a campaign this time around with a little less bombastic stuff then he did for the Mayor's race. Maybe a little Army training and maturation will help him slide into one of the spots.

Jared Shapiro is a newcomer to Lakewood politics and unfortunately will suffer the same fate that I did, and finish out of the hunt.

Now to Monqiue Smith and Dan Shields, here is where the Democrats will create a problem.

Smith is a rookie to running for office, but she is not a rookie to Democratic politics. Shields has made several attempts for elective office. But is considered to be an outsider from the Democratic clique.

I believe the split in the Democratic party endorsements will cause a split in these two and cancel each other out and put someone else in that third slot.

Here is how I think it will go:

Antonio - Gets re-elected
Demro - Comes in second, the split votes among Powers, Smith and Shield jumps him into here
Powers - Gets Retained, LCA parents and FitzGerald Fans will bring him in to the final slot
Smith - She needs more polish on her presentation at candidate forums and Q & A sessions.
Shields - Just can't get by the machine
Shapiro - Like Shields can't get by the machines

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